Frost & Sullivan: Global solar PV, CSP capacities to grow rapidly to 2020, shift to emerging markets

23 August 2013

Frost & Sullivan (Mountain View, California, U.S.) predicts that global solar photovoltaic (PV) capacities will grow 21% annually to reach 247.5 GW in 2020, but that concentrating solar power (CSP) will grow at the fastest rate of any renewable energy technology during this decade.

The company's “Annual Renewable Energy Outlook 2013” expects a 45% annual growth rate for CSP from 2010 to 2015 to reach 8.3 GW. In the following five years, Frost & Sullivan expects growth rates for both technologies to slow to 11% for PV and 22% for CSP, with CSP reaching 22.7 GW by the decade's end.

While the report notes both declining investments and slowed market growth in 2012, its projections show that on the global scale it expects both trends to reverse shortly.

PV, CSP move to emerging markets

The report also notes changing geographic trends for PV and CSP, noting that both technologies are moving away from well-established markets to emerging regions. Frost & Sullivan notes that Europe is expected to fall to only 40% of new PV installations in 2013, down from 58% in 2012.

For CSP, Frost & Sullivan notes the slowdown in the established markets of the Spain and the United States, and a shift to emerging markets including the Middle East and North Africa.

It also describes the addition of thermal storage and an increase in hybrid fossil fuel/CSP technologies as key technology trends that will allow CSP to overcome its higher prices compared to PV.

PV to make up 24% of new capacity

The report forecasts that as PV markets grow, they will reach 24% of new renewable energy capacity added from 2010-2015, but slow to only 22% in 2020.

PV will make up a larger share of installed capacity, to grow to 8.3% of existing renewable energy capacity by 2015 and 11% by 2020. Hydro is expected to remain the largest source of renewable capacity, falling to 57% in 2020 from 77% in 2010.

EU to show largest additions, MENA fastest growth

Frost & Sullivan predicts that the EU will remain the largest source of new non-hydro renewable energy capacity at 209 GW over the decade, but with the slowest annual growth rate of any region at only 10%. For sheer scale China is in second place with 165 GW of new renewables, at a 17% growth rate.

The report expects the highest growth rates in the Middle East at 38% over the decade, to reach 8.5 GW of new non-hydro renewables. Africa is also expected to grow rapidly, with a 22% growth rate over the decade to reach 12.2 GW.

This is in line with the increasing geographic spread of renewable energy, and the company notes that the number of nations with renewable energy support policies has increased from 50 in the early part of the last decade to over 120.